By Finn Raben
John Donne, a famous 17th Century English poet, prophetically wrote:
No man is an island,
Entire of itself,
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
The past few days – even with the diversionary activities of the Home nation rugby tests and of course, the European soccer tournament – might have provided a moment of calm reflection on the implications of Britain’s decision to leave the EU, but if anything, the reverse has been true….with impacts on both sides being far greater than were ever envisaged:
- The silence from the winning camp has been deafening, apart from some inflammatory remarks made in the EU….but a plan to move forward? No.
- The appearance of some quite vitriolic, and aggressively xenophobic behavior;
- A number of “Leave” voters now publicising their regret at having voted so…
- The lack of leadership from the Conservative camp, and the implosion of the Labour camp;
- The clear message that both the financial “benefits” as well as the “reduction” in immigration promised by the Leave campaign, is unlikely to be feasible;
- An explosion of anger, disappointment and dismay on social media from the generation who will have to live with the decision, one example of which can be read here.
- The very valid challenge from Scotland, Gibraltar & Northern Ireland as to why they should support a decision which is in direct opposition to the wish democratically recorded in their respective regions?
Increasingly, it is suggested that the electorate were not aware of these ramifications (or their magnitude), at the time of the vote; it is also being suggested that the referendum “morph-ed” into an anti-immigration vote rather than a more balanced assessment of whether people wanted to stay in the EU or leave it. Were people aware of the degree of political chaos that would ensue? Probably not.
So, the old rules have changed.
There now exists a political vacuum as neither the government nor the opposition appear to have a plan to address it.
The EU are being minimally sympathetic, as in their view, the decision is clear, and they wish to prevent a further spread of uncertainty, which is both the financial markets’ single biggest enemy, as well as the “tremor” that now rocks the very foundations of the EU, quite articulately put by The Guardian.
Clearly, the political class are guilty of substantially underestimating the strength of emotion/opinion of the electorate, which further suggests a lack of understanding on the politicians’ part of their constituents’ wishes. Furthermore, the respective campaigns did not make the political implications sufficiently clear to counteract the emotive arguments….so where to now?
Well, simply put, now – more than ever before – is an “ideal” time to do some really extensive research into the will, and aspirations of the electorate.
Good research has always been an invaluable tool in guiding and assisting key decisions – be they for companies, governments or societies.
A true and comprehensive understanding of the electorates wishes would now be invaluable to both sides of the House – as well as both sides of the Channel – as it would provide evidence-based guidance to all of those who have the responsibility of building the new political architecture within the context of Britain’s referendum’s result.
If I had a voice, I would strongly recommend the establishment of a fully cross-party joint committee to consider the implications of the referendum, to conduct a wide-ranging piece of social research, and from there, to build possible strategies to follow through on the referendum, and even, to formulate possible negotiation strategies (for both sides) on implementing Brexit. Research has always been the cornerstone of informed decisions – so why not now ?
Finn Raben is ESOMAR Director General.
