Two run-off Senate election races in Georgia, January 5 will decide whether the Republicans hold the Senate, or the Democrats, with the Vice-Presidential tying vote, take control if they win both seats. Each race will be a nail biter as Joe Biden only won the State by ~13,000 votes out of a total ~5 million cast. Some have suggested that the US Elections polls were so off that they should be ignored in these two pivotal Georgia Senate races!
Most of the major US Polls did project a Joe Biden Electoral College win overall based on the Dems retaking several key States, which he did albeit by much much lower margins than predicted. However, the predictions favouring the Dems in a host of States – Ohio, Iowa, Florida, etc. and their respective and critical Senate races, if contested, were generally flawed. (Jodie Ernst, Iowa, managed to retain her Senate seat by ~6.6 points and Susan Collins in Maine’s Senate race by ~8.6 points completely against the projected Democratic wins for Theresa Greenfield and Sara Gideon, respectively.)
Many of these concerns and the apparent complete “miss” on the extensive Cuban community in the Miami area of Florida for the incumbent, were addressed in an ARF webinar December 3, “Future of Forecasting”. It will serve perfectly as a ‘warm-up’ for ESOMAR’s “The Future of Polling After 2020”,Wednesday December 16th. It was reviewed in detail Media Post, Tony Jarvis, December 4th.
A couple of key quotes from the experts involved.
Kathy Frankovic, Consultant, YouGov America, Inc. suggested that, despite extensive polling by State, many of the State polls were significantly off especially in States comfortably carried by the President.
Cliff Young, President, Public Affairs, Ipsos opined on the need to capture the energy, intensity, and enthusiasm of two highly polarized political groups that demonstrated mutual contempt and their effects on turnout State by State.
David Dutwin, SVP, Strategic Initiatives, National Opinion Research Center, NORC at the University of Chicago defended polling! “The challenges are always greatest when it’s close and errors identified in previous polls always offer learning opportunities”.
