The great shock
The Coronavirus pandemic has altered the very fabric of our societies and forced us to adapt to new complexities. The epidemic has manifested itself through behavioural, psychological, socio-political, and economic vectors of disruption. These four forces have cut open our economies and institutions, exposing their deficiencies and flaws. The pandemic appears to be a great filter and a catalyst of change at the same time. But in forcing difficult choices with scarce resources, crises such as this also bring opportunities for political leaders to build a better and more resilient world on principles of humanity, solidarity and sustainability.
Behavioural vector
As soon as the first patients in Europe were diagnosed with COVID-19, national governments started issuing laws and directives in an attempt to influence human behaviour against the spread of the virus. These included washing hands more often, wearing face masks, avoiding social gatherings and staying at home. Consequentially societies have undergone massive behavioural changes. The compliant majority refrained from deeply ingrained social rituals such as hugging, kissing and handshaking. Observing the rules meant protecting oneself, loved ones and others in the wider community; it was a logical thing to do.
However, not all behavioural responses were constructive. In the UK, for example, an anxious minority engaged in panicky stockpiling of groceries, which in turn started a bandwagon effect. Suddenly the fear of a grocery shortage itself created one. On the other hand, disobedient youngsters, sceptical about the virus, saw a chance to pursue “new freedoms”. Defying the system and anti-COVID rules, they organised illegal rave parties, forcing police to intervene.
Psychological vector
For many, the pandemic was a journey into an unknown filled with anxiety, panic and stress. The world was seen as a chaotic and dangerous place. Those with lower income, fewer savings and bigger families to support felt highly vulnerable and apprehensive. A minority felt rebellious and angry, while the majority reported being bored and deflated. In addition to worrying about falling ill and dying, people feared systemic collapse and loss of civil liberties. Conversely, some felt happy that they finally had space and time to explore their interests and hobbies. Many took comfort in spending quality time with their loved ones. Recent graduates, and those about to graduate, felt what is called “job despair” as they anticipated difficulties landing their first jobs and climbing career ladders.
Socio-political vector
The pandemics have caused nations to reassess their bilateral relationships and put traditional alliances under strain. In the early stages of the coronavirus outbreak, some European countries missed the opportunity to help their struggling neighbours with much needed medical aid. Russia and China took their chance to fill this void and quickly sent branded lorries with much-required supplies. Sentiments profoundly changed, and Italians suddenly felt much closer to Russians and Chinese than to Germans and the rest of the EU bloc.
Bottled frustrations and anxieties triggered a chain of mass protests across the continent. We saw them in Greece, Serbia, Germany, Spain, Montenegro, Belarus and Bulgaria. Some were more violent than others, but in principle, people felt urged to protect what they perceived as diminishing civic and democratic rights. Suggestions to step up data monitoring as a means of tackling the spread of the virus were deeply unpopular. For example, people in the UK and Italy would rather stay locked in than have governments sift through their private data.
Economic vector
Consumption and spending patterns have changed too. People became prudent with their money and resorted to essentials. High earners were able to save the most while those living hand to mouth were stretched thin. With more free time at home, people invested in video games, consoles and online entertainment. Internet usage soared. With life and work shifting to online, businesses and institutions were forced to adjust. The new mantra became — move online or perish. We entered a new era of digitalisation, with meetings held remotely by video conference. Workforces became stratified between those able to work from home (WFH) and those who could not. With staff increasingly working remotely, companies started cancelling their rental leases which forced commercial rents down. Conversely, UK residential property prices went up by 5% as people started reassessing their priorities and taking advantage of duty stamp concessions.
The hospitality and services industries suffered severe blows as demand dropped, and many in these industries had to be furloughed and eventually fired (in the UK some 700,000 have lost their jobs since March). At the same time, online retailers such as Amazon and supermarkets took on additional staff to meet a strong surge in demand. As a consequence, reverse migration within the EU might be expected, with low-skilled workers, now unable to pay bills and find new jobs, returning to their home countries.
The way forward
Every crisis is a chance to rethink our old ways for the better. This perfect storm is a moment for business and political elites to lead a systemic redesign of our institutions and economies. We can expect to see changes to the global economy and its supply chains; governments to take a more interventionist role in public and economic life; a rethinking of how and where we work, as we shift to a more open, flexible and empathetic work culture; a redesign of our public spaces, city centres and transport systems; and perhaps a profound shift in our habits of mind and lifestyle choices, as we have an opportunity to think about who we are, as individuals and as a society.
In designing a better and more resilient world, we should be guided by three basic principles:
- Humanity – in the battle against this virus, we have an opportunity to reaffirm what matters to us as human beings, and to design societies which put people, their well-being and mental health at their centre.
- Solidarity – COVID exposed the lack of preparedness and resilience of an increasingly globalised and interconnected economy. There has never been a greater need to overcome narrow nationalist thinking and to coordinate global action – in sharing innovation, allocating resources and preparing for the next systemic crisis.
- Sustainability – protecting the environment is not a matter of choice any more, but an imperative. Once we recognise nature and wildlife as a precious resource, we will safeguard ourselves from new viruses crossing the animal-human barrier and potentially reverse the negative trends of global warming and pandemics. There will be a renewed focus on building holistic ‘circular economies’ designed to benefit businesses, society and the environment. All this requires behavioural change and enlightened consumers and elites making smart choices.
COVID-19 has catapulted us five to ten years into our digital future, but history teaches us that crises are fertile soil for radical innovation and that giant leaps forward are possible. We have yet to see whether this generation will seize this opportunity to create a lasting legacy of change.
