Tim Macer
A world of new opportunities that focuses on ‘what next’
Probably the greatest opportunity that big data presents to the world of market research lies not just in delivering insights, but in delivering reliable, highly specific predictions about the future.
The industry should be ideally placed to stake a major claim in the emerging science of forecasting, thanks to its heritage of rigour and integrity in examining data, the attention it pays to context, and its capacity to inspire action through storytelling. Despite this, forecasting is often seen as something other than research – beyond it or possibly even slightly outside it.
In talking to a number forecasting experts and pioneers, a consistent picture emerges of the tremendous power of forecasting to make research more accountable and more actionable – more focused on ‘what next’ as opposed to ‘what’.
Predictive models
Hall & Partners has taken forecasting to heart. In 2011, through its parent Omnicom, it acquired The Modellers, a predictive analytics outfit of marketing scientists and data analysts. Since then, developing predictive models to work with a client’s existing data has been a core part of this agency’s business.
CEO Vanella Jackson explains: “The focus on expecting people to give us rational answers to questions as a predictor of behaviour has had to change. Clearly, the big answer to this is data. Today, we are getting much more involved in understanding what a broader set of data can tell us about people’s behaviour.”
A new client will be taken through what Jackson describes as a ‘data shake’ to establish what existing data the client has and what value it provides in understanding consumer behaviour and delivering insights.
“The great thing about this data,” she notes, “is it shows you the reality of the behaviour. If you can bring that data together smartly, then you can create a test-and-learn approach to some of this decision making. This can be used to establish whether you are getting the kinds of behavioural changes you are expecting.”
Strategic skills
This approach calls for a very different relationship between research company and client. “The first step is for us to acknowledge that it is our job to provide an insight on what people are going to do and what informs those decisions. I think the whole industry needs to broaden its skill set and not just embrace new data skills, but also strategic skills.”
This also means revisiting cherished notions of rigour, says Jackson, who places a particular emphasis on reclaiming rigour in thinking in the face of the power of assumption. Rigour also comes from the feedback loop of being able to test the models and their predictions to see what effect new decisions have on behaviour.
Surveys and questions remain part of the mix, but also need to be redefined. “I think their role is still about understanding ‘why,’ but we need to be innovative in how we approach ‘why,’” she explains. “We need to use new techniques that can get below the radar and look at the unconscious. The business needs to step back and understand what is driving behaviour through better cultural understanding of behaviour, for example by looking at behavioural economics.”
Jackson adds that context is also vital in providing the scope for forecasting to look beyond the immediate future: “If you combine this with a qualitative offering, this means you can provide a much longer term cultural view, based on the modelling around the behaviour. So there is no reason why you cannot apply this to the longer horizons too.”
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