Following a year of turbulent change, insight professionals are now preparing for 2021. We talk to Vanessa Gibbons, who is Go-To-Market Lead at Microsoft Asia Pacific about priorities for the year ahead.
What do you think will be the key challenges and opportunities in 2021?
2021 is presenting us with a lot of big challenges at a macro level.
Top of the list of course is the timing and distribution of the release of the COVID-19 vaccines. This has direct implications on how and when we can expect individual markets to recover. 2021 will require a balance of investing for growth in markets where the virus is well contained, and vaccine distribution is universal; and tight cost control for those markets where the pandemic is still in play. So 2021 will see a focus on agile market-by-market activation to convert pockets of ‘purchase intent’ to ‘purchase’.
The second big challenge is how to reach and engage our customers in the ‘new normal’. In 2020, we saw the shift towards remote and flexible work arrangements as we started to live our work lives through Microsoft Teams, Zoom and Google Meet. The new ways of working have changed both the traditional path to purchase and our channel mix.
The third macro challenge is the increased consumer scrutiny on sustainable business practices and how products improve the world we live in. This means more work on ‘purpose’ with a richer and deeper understanding of what ‘brand purpose’ means to consumers in a post-COVID world.
Does this mean you will have a more fine-grained approach to how you will be researching different regions and markets?
Yes. In 2020, we spent a lot of time building models to understand where pockets of intent were emerging following the global pause in March-April. We used a combination of search and social engagement data, government socio-economic data, regular quant and qual dips and our owned data to develop predictive models to evaluate which markets and audiences were re-engaging with our products. We will continue with this form of market-by-market analytics in 2021.
With ‘purpose’ high on the list of priorities for this year, we will supplement these models with investments to understand the state of mind of customers as they start to spend in 2021.
In talking about different levels of optimism regarding COVID, would you say that Asia is more optimistic than other regions?
Yes and no. It is a generalisation given the size and diversity of the region, but it appears that people here feel confident that the virus is well contained and they have a high level of optimism and trust in the government, communities and businesses to keep them safe.
On the flip side, we have seen in China that the high consumption mindset of millennials pre-COVID has been tempered. We don’t know yet whether this is temporary or permanent. This has implications for economies and brands who rely on Chinese consumer spending. 2021 will be the year that we see how this plays out.
How can research help companies navigate ongoing change and what will be the priorities for the coming year?
Budgets will be tight in 2021. So agencies that can help brands predict which consumers are ready to purchase will be key. Helping clients to better understand where the pockets of recovery are, where consumer intent is growing and the differences between what we call ‘dreaming’ (searching) and ‘doing‘ (buying) will be essential.
2020 has shown us that spikes in virus cases can happen fast. An economy that is open can within one or two weeks have a spike and social distancing measures are put back in place. When the market changes happen that fast, insights can almost be your worst enemy. So agencies will need to demonstrate speed and agility.
In 2020, when f2f meetings were not possible, companies had to switch methodologies. Are there practices introduced in 2020 that you will keep in 2021?
In 2021, we will continue to rely on mobile, social and video platforms in place of f2f as it is cheaper, faster and safer for all involved.
Do you think that perhaps historical trend data no longer applies in this situation?
I don’t think year-on-year, country-level trend data is valuable right now. Instead, we’re using trend data from recovering countries (whose government and community responses have been similar) to predict what is likely to happen in similar markets as they start to recover. We’ve certainly been able to apply learnings from China and Korea to other recovering Asia markets. Similarly, we have been able to use New Zealand trend data to help predict recovery in Australia.
Are trends in Europe and the US more unpredictable?
I would think so. From purely following what’s in the media, it does appear that the situation in the US and Europe is more socially and politically volatile and that there is a less well coordinated or centralised government and community response. When recovery is at a city-by-city level, it makes it very challenging for marketers to predictably plan.
Which skills or ways of working will be even more important in the coming year?
2021 is going to be challenging for marketers as they are expected to flag when a market is showing signs of recovery and initiate investments quickly to drive consumers to purchase. Agencies who can understand marketers’ business challenges, and provide agile solutions in a cost effective way will be highly valuable.
Do you believe that how people intend to consume in the future is based on emotions and does this mean more qualitative research?
There is no doubt emotions will continue to play a big role in purchase decisions. But in 2021, I suspect that the emotional cues that matter will be very different to those pre-pandemic. Consumers will be hypersensitive when it comes to product safety and quality assurance.
Also, observing the trends we are seeing in China, Korea and Japan, consumers will place more importance on how a product positively impacts the world they live in. There will be an even greater desire to understand how product ingredients are sourced, how products are packaged sustainably and whether the supply chain meets the Global Sustainable Development goals. Qualitative research will be important for brands needing to understand this at an individual country level.
Will you be keeping the same balance between quantitative and qual?
I expect the ratio of investment will remain the same but the purpose of each will be different. In the past, we’ve used qualitative research to help uncover market opportunities and emotional territories for our brands then evaluated them through quant. In 2021, I’d expect to see desk research and quant used together to help us identify how a market is recovering and where there are signs of renewed purchase intent. Then we’d leverage qual to help us uncover what brand cues are needed to convert intent to purchase.
