Following the new withdrawal agreement reached between the United Kingdom and the European Union on 17 October, it seemed that until very recently, Brexit would finally happen by the 31 October deadline. However, just a few days later, the prospect of another extension has become a reality. This would be the fourth extension since March 2019, with the Brexit drama looking ever more like a scene from “Groundhog Day,” – an endless cycle, and one whose outcome becomes less clear as the days go by.
In September 2019, when the 31 October still seemed to be a plausible deadline for Brexit, Kantar conducted two pieces of research to better understand public perceptions of Brexit. Le Centre Kantar sur le Futur de l’Europe and Kantar’s International Election Team looked at European attitudes towards Brexit in six EU countries (France, Germany, Poland, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain) via an online survey conducted among a representative sample of the population aged 18 or older in each country.
In parallel, an innovative approach was put in place to analyse the views of British citizens living in the EU (“expats”) on Brexit. British people aged 18 or older living in six EU countries were recruited via advertisements posted on Facebook and Instagram.
Brexit: a negative thing with damaging consequences for the EU
One of the main findings of the research is an apparent paradox; while a large majority believe that Brexit is a ‘bad thing’ in most EU countries, in all six EU countries, large proportions of citizens believe that the EU should not allow any further extension of the Brexit deadline.
Indeed, more than half of citizens in all countries surveyed – except France (40%) – believed that Brexit was a ‘somewhat bad’ or a ‘very bad’ thing, with this total being expressed by close to three-quarters of Germans (74%) and the Irish (73%), and over two-thirds of Spaniards (68%).
Europeans are firmly convinced that, in the case of a no-deal Brexit, British people and the United Kingdom will be worse off than the EU, their country, or themselves.
Further, most Europeans think that Brexit will also have damaging consequences for the EU with more than two-thirds of Spaniards (68%) and around half of Dutch (53%), German (52%) and Irish (46%) citizens believing the European Union will be worse off as a result of a no-deal Brexit.
Negative personal consequences are mentioned less often by European citizens. Except Irish people (50%), only a third or less of people among the five other countries thought a no-deal Brexit would result in them personally being worse off. British ‘expats’ are far less positive and much more concerned for the personal consequences of a no-deal – 70% of them said that the impact of no-deal will be negative for them. In contrast, British ‘expats’ are interestingly much more concerned than the British citizens living in the UK only 31% of whom believe that a no-deal on 31 October would have a fairly or very negative impact on them personally. This is far less than for Irish citizens (50%)!
European citizens would however like to reach a conclusion soon
Despite their fears of the negative consequences, Europeans want to move on. A majority of Europeans surveyed at the end of September thought that the EU should not allow any further extension of the deadline. This was the case for two-thirds of Germans and majorities of the citizens in all countries except the Netherlands (47%). These results may be seen as “Brexit fatigue” with citizens now impatient that the whole process ends and perhaps, for some citizens, the feeling that they would prefer it over and done with, even if that means a no-deal exit.
European citizens are additionally more likely to agree with the statement that the EU should leave it up to the UK to make a decision on the given options, rather than say that the EU should offer the UK a renegotiation to make it more workable for the UK.
This is particularly the case in the Netherlands, Spain, Germany and France where the gap between the two answers is the greatest. Indeed, whilst for example 67% of Spaniards think that the EU should leave it up to the UK to decide, only 45% of them think that the EU should offer the UK a new deal to make it more workable for the UK.
A never-ending process
At the end of September 2019, a majority of Europeans still thought that the UK would leave the EU on 31 October. Indeed, except in Germany where a majority thought the UK would not leave (49% against 38% Leave), in all other five countries surveyed, between 44% and 56% of citizens believed that the UK would leave the EU on that date, albeit with the important caveat that the majority holding this opinion affirm that such an exit would be without a deal.
Prognostics were, however, quite tight, revealing the uncertainty of the situation. Yet, it is worth noting that a majority of British ‘expats’ (45% against 39%) believed on the contrary that it was unlikely that the UK would leave the EU by that date, even if a majority of them (51%) thought that the likeliest conclusion to Brexit, regardless of when it finally occurs, is the UK leaving the EU without a deal.
A positive consequence: European unity?
This research also reveals unity between the six European countries surveyed, and their desire to continue to pursue and support the European project, regardless of whether the UK is a part of that or not. This sentiment is felt to such an extent in certain countries, primarily Germany and Spain, that people express a desire for a referendum on EU membership, so as to be able to demonstrate their support for the EU.
45% of Germans and 40% of Spaniards are in favour of a referendum of their country’s EU membership, the two highest scores in the six countries surveyed. However, when asked how they would vote in such a referendum, 75% of Germans state that they would vote to remain, against only 17% for leave, whilst 72% of Spaniards would choose to remain and only 13% to leave. Furthermore, even France (52% remain, 24% leave) and the Netherlands (60% remain, 19% leave), the two countries ‘least favourable’ to remaining in the EU, still have overwhelming majorities in favour of remaining, whilst in the other four countries surveyed over 70% of voters would opt for remain and only 17% or less would choose to leave.
Interestingly, if there was another referendum, 78% of British ‘expats’ would vote to remain in the EU while 18% would vote to leave. This difference is mostly due to British ‘expats’ who did not vote in 2016 and who now say that they would vote remain in a large majority. The uncertainty remains as to whether they would indeed vote to impact the overall result of a second referendum, which in any case seems now to be rather unlikely.
For more information about these studies, please visit kantar.com/public or contact ElectionTeam@kantar.com
