The upsurge that saw the participation rate of Europeans in the 2019 elections jump by more than 8 points compared to the 2014 election to reach 50.63% (by far the highest rate since the enlargement of 2004 and furthermore, since more than 20 years) was one of the main lessons of the May 26 election, and one of its first surprises.
However, even if it was unexpectedly large, this rising participation was not inconsistent with pre-election surveys, which foresaw a possible rise in mobilisation in a number of countries. The European Parliament’s 911 Eurobarometer was in line with this result, as the February-March survey saw an increase in the number of people reporting a high probability of voting. Above all, this surge of participation is perfectly consistent with other lessons learned from these same surveys: the accumulation of themes of concern such as economic growth, unemployment, immigration and climate change that voters wanted to see debated during these elections. Two of these topics, immigration and climate change, were of concern to very different electorates, but were strongly mobilised by the feeling that Europe is the relevant level to manage these issues, thereby increasing participation.
The new parliament
As for the results themselves, and their effect on the composition of the new parliament, the elections of May 26 only confirmed the new equilibrium anticipated by the polls. The main consequence of this being namely that the two largest groups in the Strasbourg Chamber, the EPP and the S & D, would no longer hold the absolute majority. As expected the EPP remains the main group, with 179 seats out of 751, and the losses it suffered (42 seats compared to the constitutive session of 2014) are entirely in line with the projections based on pre-election surveys.
The surprise came from France where the Republicans, at 8.5%, fell to an unprecedented level 4 to 5 points lower than that expected by the polls. However, this under-performance was compensated by the slightly better than expected scores for the EPP composition in a number of Central European countries (mainly in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania).
The retreat of S & D’s social democrats, which with 153 seats lost about 30 elected representatives, was also widely anticipated on a continental scale. Some successes have managed to limit losses or even to generate a surprise, such as the Dutch PvdA, which gained an unexpected first place in most pre-election polls. Thus probably owes much to the personality of Frans Timmermans, and perhaps to its status of “Spitzenkandidat” but also seems to be a sign of a vote in favor of the European Union in view of the under-performance of both eurosceptic parties, the FvD of Thierry Baudet and the PVV of Geert Wilders.
In Italy, the Democratic Party held up well, and during the campaign seems to have gained ground with some of the voters who had been seduced by the 5-star movement which seems to suffer from its participation in the government with the Lega of Matteo Salvini.
In Spain, the PSOE has largely won, and in the new Parliament it provides the main delegation of the S & D, with 20 seats, while Germany has only 16. The main lesson of this election is indeed in the weakening of social-democratic formations in three countries that historically provided large contingents to the S & D, the United Kingdom, Germany and France. In these latter two countries, SPD and PS are for the first time ahead of the Greens. In the United Kingdom the Labor Party is hot on the heels of the Green Party, but with the support of the three Scottish members of the SNP, the British delegation in the Greens/EFA will be larger than the S & D.
Greens grow
The progress of the Greens/EFA group from 52 to 75 seats was not expected at this level. It is mainly due to the score of the German Greens (which, with 20.5%, do a little better than expected) but also the gap with forecasts is mainly in France, where the third place of EELV (13.5%) was not anticipated.
The British reinforcements, and to a lesser extent the Irish and Austrian Greens, the separatists in Spain participated in this success. It should be noted, however, that this phenomenon mainly concerns Western, Nordic and Baltic Europe. Central Europe (with the exception of the Czech Pirate Party) is not represented in this group. The Greens remain nonetheless one of the pivotal parties to constitute the future majority that the EPP and S & D no longer accumulate alone. They share this status with another election winner, the centrist and liberal group, newly named “Renew Europe”.
The contribution of the 21 elected French members of the Renaissance list to the former ALDE allows this group to exceed 100 seats (106) and become the third group of the new hemicycle, according to projections. The pre-election surveys had indeed correctly anticipated the score of the list “En Marche” in France, slightly overestimated that of Ciudadanos in Spain, but more largely underestimated that of the British Lib Dems. Recent information on local alliances in Ciudadanos with the PP and especially Vox (especially in Madrid) could nevertheless numerically weaken this political group that could decide to exclude Ciudadanos.
The key winners
The main beneficiaries of the decline of the EPP and the S & D are the Liberals and the ecologists, and if we compare the elected and the outgoing Parliament, these four groups that could constitute the future majority are almost stable, going from 522 to 513 seats. They represent 2/3 of the hemicycle.
This fits poorly with the scenario that was very present in people’s minds, but was quickly contradicted by the first projections based on pre-election surveys, of a “populist” or “anti-European” tidal wave in Strasbourg.
On the far left of the hemicycle, the GUE/NGL suffered an under-performance (from 52 to 38 seats), particularly in France where France Insoumise is far from the left supremacy that the polls gave hope for. This group also declined in Spain (Podemos) and in Greece (Syriza facing the test of power) where the context of the economic crisis had provided it with good scores in 2014. In contrast, the Eurosceptics right-wing formations (ECR and EFDD, as well as that Identity and Democracy, which replaces ENF) increased from 155 seats to 177.
This space, however, remains divided into three groups, among which the internal balances have evolved. The sharp decline of the British Tories (from 19 to 4 seats), was more severe than anticipated, and weakens the ECR. This weakening is however relative because it is compensated by the very good result of the Polish party Law and Justice (PiS) which is in the lead and obtained more than 45% of the votes allowing it to grow from 19 to 26 seats, which makes it the fourth party with the most representatives in the European Parliament behind the CDU (29), the Brexit Party (29) and the Lega (28). The anticipated success of the Lega in Italy strengthens ID which gets 73 seats, thanks also to the first place of the National Rally in France, to the 11 German seats of AFD, which chose to join this group but also to the Vlaams Belang which with 11.68 % and three seats comes second in Belgium just behind the N-VA.
EFDD is apparently stable, due to the very high Brexit Party score (29 seats), but does not have the number of national delegations needed to form a group, since only the Italian 5 Stars Movement would be involved. In addition, the prospect of the departure of the British deputies suggests another distribution of groups to the right of the Chamber, which could still benefit ID. But for this legislature, this right-wing sovereignist pole will remain a minority, as foreseen by the surveys and projections.
The transition from a two-group majority (EPP and S & D) to a four-party majority (+ Renewed Europe and the Greens) will nonetheless have a major impact on the functioning of the European Parliament. The appointment of the President of the European Commission thus already seems strongly affected by this change since the system of “Spitzenkandidat” which assigns the presidency of the Commission to the “candidate at the top of the list” of the European political party which won the greatest number of seats in the European Parliament seems in question. This process endorsed in 2014, hailed as a democratic progress at the time, and confirmed in 2018 by the European Parliament, was supposed to appoint Manfred Weber of the EPP as President of the Commission. This scenario seems to be being squeezed out by pressure from some of the members of this new coalition in the center
